Professor Derek Pugh, now Emeritus at the Open University, a member of the team who conducted the ‘Aston Studies’ of the 1960s, once said that every organisation has the strength of its weaknesses and the weakness of its strengths. What (I think) he meant was that strengths can become the source of a downfall, and weaknesses may provide the basis for new opportunities. .
This logic can also be applied to individuals, and in many ways you could portray this as a real sign of greatness: someone who is able to grasp the opportunity to turn a weakness into a strength. As a fan of music, and particularly the guitar, I am reminded of Django Reinhardt the great jazz guitarist who was badly injured in a fire at eighteen years old. Reinhardt re-taught himself to play the guitar and developed a unique style, only using his index and middle finger on his left hand when playing solos, as his other fingers had been paralysed as a consequence of the blaze. His distinctive style was sometimes referred to as ‘hot’ jazz, and for many he remains one of the greatest guitarists of all time.
A recent tweet from Richard Williams, concerning Ayrton Senna and his performance at the European Grand Prix at Donington in 1993, got me thinking about this question as it relates to Senna and his legacy. A few years ago I was chatting to someone at Cosworth about this amazing drive, and particularly the first lap when Senna moved from fourth, back to fifth, and then to lead the race by the end of the first lap. It is no secret that, at that time, the Cosworth in Senna’s McLaren was significantly underpowered, particularly when compared to the Renault engine in the Williams’ of Alain Prost and Damon Hill. However my friend regarded this as a potential advantage in the wet conditions, when it would be difficult, if not impossible, to use the power advantage of the Renault due to the low grip on the wet track. But he remarked that the Cosworth also had a smoother, flatter power curve which meant that it was easier to control than the more aggressive power curve of the Renault in low grip conditions, exactly like those at Donington in 1993.
One interpretation of this information is that perhaps Senna’s drive was not that exceptional because he had an engine advantage for the damp conditions that existed at the time. I prefer to look at it another way; he recognised the limitations of the Cosworth power unit during the 1993 season – which was why he moved to the Renault powered Williams for 1994 - and he therefore made sure that, given the wet track at Donington, he would exploit this opportunity to its very maximum. That day he drove in a way that showed a confidence and commitment that none could match on the first lap. Recognising the opportunity in a weakness is what greatness is all about.
February 21, 2013
Luca Marmorini, Ferrari’s Head of Engines, has been quoted in Autosport.com as saying that it is important that Ferrari have a second (ie in addition to Sauber) customer for their 2014 power unit – note the term ‘power unit’ as effectively these are engine + energy recovery systems, so the simple term ‘engine’ no longer seems to do it justice.
The reason for this concern is that their current second customer Toro Rosso have recently announced that they will be shifting to a Renault power unit in 2014, which makes sense organizationally as they are co-owned by Dietrich Mateschitz of Red Bull with Red Bull Racing, so presumably they can share more data during development and racing and therefore improve the performance of both teams. However Toro Rosso’s location in Faenza makes Maranello the ideal partner from a logistical point of view as they are literally a few kilometres down the road. Location matters in F1, otherwise we wouldn’t have Motorsport Valley in the UK, and so the proximity between the power unit supplier and customer cannot be ignored. For this reason, Marmorini hopes that all is not lost with Toro Rosso and that they may review their decision to go to Renault, as he says on the Autosport site: “I don’t know if Toro Rosso will be with us next year. We are still working very well with them now. They’re an important contribution to Ferrari engine development, but I also think we are giving them a competitive engine.”
A key factor in this is data. Derek Gardner, the now sadly departed designer of the six wheel Tyrrell, told me that a key problem that they had with the six wheeler was the speed of development of the front tyres, which were far smaller than the standard F1 front tyre that Goodyear supplied to all the other teams. As a consequence they were getting far less data on the performance of the tyre – as it was only fitted to two cars and so were unable to develop it as fast as the other which had feedback from twenty four cars (there were 13 teams racing back in 1976). Data therefore is everything if you want to improve performance.
So currently it seems (and things could still move around a fair bit) that if Toro Rosso move to Renault then Renault will be the leading supplier with power units in five teams: Red Bull Racing; Toro Rosso; Lotus; Williams and Caterham. Mercedes will be supplying power units to three teams: their works team plus McLaren and Force India. Ferrari will be supplying two teams – themselves and Sauber. It seems very unlikely that Cosworth, who currently supply Marussia, will be in the frame for 2014 (but never say never) and so who knows, we may see Ferrari supplying the power unit for Marussia, which will make an interesting dynamic in their race with Caterham to tenth place.
May 25, 2010
There’s an interesting piece in the June edition of F1 Racing which suggests that Williams are less than happy with the performance of their Cosworth engine this year and are exploring a link up with Porsche.
It is clear that Williams are, so far, not delivering the kind of performance you would normally expect from the Grove based team, and given the strong racing tradition within the company, I’m sure they’re not too pleased with it either. As they are the only established team to be using Cosworth power this year, it is difficult to get a clear benchmark as to how much the engine is impacting on their performance. Certainly the Renault (Red Bull and Renault) and Mercedes (Mercedes, McLaren and Force India) power units appear to be strong, and although Ferrari have been doing well with their own cars, the only established teams yet to score a point are Toro Rosso and Sauber, both of whom use Ferrari customer engines. Of course aerodyanmics are the biggest driver of performance these days, but although the engine designs are effectively ‘frozen’ they can make a difference in terms of overall power, the way the power comes in when the throttle is used (driveability), reliability, shape – to help aerodynamics – and also the centre of gravity which can impact on handling. The F1 Racing article suggests that there are concerns with the driveability of the Cosworth engine and also its ability to maintain optimum performance with increased mileage. Apparently Cosworth are working on these issues and hope to have improvements in place for the Turkish Grand Prix.
Porsche have a fairly chequered history in F1. They entered a full works team in 1961 to take advantage of regulation changes to use a 1.5litre V6 engine, they remained until the end of 1964, shortly before the regulations changed again to permit larger 3.0 litre engines, but were not really able to enjoy much success during this period, they did win one race – the 1962 French Grand Prix at Rouen. They came back as an engine supplier in 1983 when their power units were used in the McLaren F1 car and branded Techniques Avant Garde (TAG) as this was the sponsor who funded the project. This relationship ended in 1987 when Ron Dennis had persuaded Honda to move to McLaren away from supplying – guess who? – Williams.
So why is there speculation about Porsche and Williams now? Well it seems to be one of these ‘by association’ links. Williams Hybrid Power (WHP) was set up by Williams to develop their KERS system for 2009, using a electro/mechanical (generator/flywheel and electric motor) system rather than the electrical (generator/battery and electric motor) system adopted by the other teams. However WHP is also a stand-alone operation which is looking to commercially exploit this F1 based technology for other applications. Recently they have collaborated with Porsche to produce the hybrid system for the new 911 GT3 R Hybrid race car. This was announced at the 2010 Geneva Motor Show in March and the car recently lead the field at the Nurburgring 24 hour race before succumbing to engine problems. Porsche clearly believe that hybrid technology is consistent with their high performance products and are using Williams’ F1 technology to develop this. However, it is unlikely that Porsche would entertain the idea of supplying an F1 engine in the short term with F1 engine regulations being very restrictive. However the FIA is currently working on new engine regulations from 2013, which are likely to emphasize hybrid technology, so this could be something for the future, and may provide an opportunity for Porsche or other VW group brands. However for the time being it looks as though Williams will have to hope that Cosworth make some progress in terms of catching up with Renault and Mercedes.
February 1, 2010
As the Valencia test gets underway this week, aside from the car and driver comparisons that can be drawn, the one I’m going to be looking out for is engines. Admittedly Valencia is not likely to be an ‘engine’ circuit, but the performance of the engines, both in power, reliability and fuel economy is going to be a critical factor in explaining the performance of the teams in 2010. Fuel economy is a potentially critical issue as there will be no in-race refuelling and so the ability of the engine to require less fuel to complete a race is going to be a big competitive advantage. An announcement was made recently that the 2009 spec engines would not be ‘equalised’ . The FIA had given the engine suppliers the opportunity to adjust down the more powerful units if there was a view that there was an inequality, but it looks like (surprise, surprise) this could not be agreed. Of course this did not include Cosworth who have based their 2010 power unit on their 2006 spec engine. The engine was originally designed to run at 20,000rpm and will now run at the regulated 18,000.
The word on the street is that, of the 2009 engines, the Mercedes and Renault power units are likely to be the best combination in power and economy, with the Ferrari engine looking to be thirstier. Commentators have noted that Ferrari have recently registered a number of ‘reliability upgrades’ which are allowed under the regulations, which have been interpreted as Ferrari trying to address this problem. One of the most successful corporate and technological partnerships in F1 is that between Ferrari and Shell, in the past Shell have worked with Ferrari to develop fuels that both weighed less and gave a power advantage, I’m sure, if there is a problem, that it will be addressed before too long. But the really interesting question is how well the Cosworth engine will perform. The message I’m hearing from the Cosworth people is a bullish one, they are optimistic that they will be right up there in terms of performance and economy, however there are concerns that as the team have not run an engine in F1 since they partnered Williams in 2006, there could be reliability issues. Either way it will be interesting to look at the times at Valencia in terms of engines as well as cars and drivers.
Valencia first session, it looks like the engine order is Ferrari (Ferrari, Sauber); Mercedes (Mercedes, McLaren), Cosworth (Williams) and then Renault (I’ve excluded Toro Rosse [Ferrari] on the assumption that their poor performance is due to the fact that they’ve had to design their own chassis for the first time!)
November 20, 2009
The general view of the knowledgeable F1 press appears to be that the relationship between McLaren and Mercedes has totally broken down, and that Mercedes will be unlikely to remain their engine supplier for much longer, certainly not until 2015 as their revised agreement states.
So if McLaren do switch engine suppliers who would they go to? Well Cosworth could be a short term solution, particularly if their power unit is competitive, which early indications suggest will be the case. The 2009 Brawn demonstrated that you can still create a competitive car with a relatively late change of engine supplier. McLaren did use Cosworth engines at one time – James Hunt won the 1976 World Championship with a Cosworth powered McLaren, but in the post 1980 Ron Dennis team they have tended to do their own exclusive engine deals such as that with Porsche (badged as TAG turbo), Honda, Peugeot and Mercedes. There are of course other potential sources such as acquiring the Toyota and BMW designs (which are reputedly up for sale at the right price) and making them their own – this would be a big step and considering they are now buying back the 40% Mercedes shareholding it is unlikely that they would want to be extending their finances in this way, although it would be in keeping with their aspirations to build a distinctive McLaren brand to mirror Ferrari. Other options could be Renault, depending on what decisions emanate from Paris over the next few weeks. I have already posted that Red Bull could do a badging deal with Renault to take over their engine operation, so presumably McLaren could do the same, but again this could require extended funding at a difficult time. I think that the one option that can safely be discarded is Ferrari, McLaren are a proud team and even pragmatism has its limits.
November 3, 2009
If we put Ferrari to one side as a special case, and omit Toyota, as it remains unclear as to whether or not they will continue into 2010, we are seeing a new kind of involvement from those automotive manufacturers who plan to remain in F1.
The emerging model appears to be far closer to that of the eighties and nineties where the car manufacturers focus on engine supply, but with the added commitment of full or part ownership of teams. The engine scenario for 2010 looks to be dominated by Mercedes (McLaren, Brawn, Force India) and Cosworth (Williams, Campos, USF1, Manor, Lotus) with Ferrari and Renault also supplying engines to Toro Rosso (and also Sauber if they secure a place) and Red Bull Racing respectively. It looks likely that Mercedes will be aligning their brand more strongly with Brawn, but also that they may be seeking to identify a separate identifiable brand in the way that Cosworth will no doubt do. The other interesting question is Renault. Will the team be looking to find a buyer and shift to the kind of model which Mercedes are developing? – I suspect so.
September 28, 2009
Earlier in the year I had posted a few predictions for a number of key aspects of the 2010 season: teams, sponsors, engines and drivers. We’re not in a position to see how these will totally work out but this is the end of September status report.
We now have fourteen teams potentially lining up with the current batch of ten being joined by Manor, Campos, USF1 and Lotus. The main question is whether we will see the team currently known as BMW Sauber on the grid in 2010. The FIA statement on announcing the 13th entry (Lotus) is quite clear that there are currently only thirteen places on the grid for 2010. Therefore the only way that the BMW Sauber team will have a place in F1 next year is if either one of the current players withdraws (Toyota and Renault must still be uncertain given that Toyota are still awaiting budget approval for 2010 from TMC and Renault must still be considering their options post crashgate), one of the new entrants fails to materialize (USF1 is reportedly struggling to get their car put together in time) or they reach an agreement with FOTA to extend the grid to fourteen. Of course if the FIA had chosen BMW Sauber as the 13th team, then FOTA would have been pretty unlikely to agree to extending the grid as more teams mean more competition for sponsors, and also the potential for a diluting of the influence of the established players. By selecting Lotus the FIA have now put pressure onto FOTA to accept the fourteen cars and allow one of their founding members to continue in F1. A game of brinkmanship is likely here with FOTA hoping that one of the new teams don’t make it and the FIA trying to make sure they do. Of course if Toyota and Renault do pull out the situation could suddenly change.
Sponsors: There seems to be a bit of a transition going on with some long term sponsors leaving over the next year or so (e.g. RBS, Philip Morris), others continuing (Santander) and some new faces entering (e.g. Virgin, YouTube).
Some aspects of the engine situation have still to play out. Will Williams switch to Renault? Will Red Bull Racing switch to Mercedes? Will Mercedes buy into Brawn? Will Cosworth supply all four of the new teams? It appears that Ferrari are likely to supply the BMW Sauber team should they get a place, so a potential scenario is that Mercedes supply four teams (McLaren, Brawn, Red Bull, Force India); Cosworth four (USF1, Manor, Campos, Lotus); Ferrari three (Ferrari, Toro Rosso; BMW Sauber renamed); Renault two (Renault, Williams); and Toyota one (Toyota).
Drivers: The key to the driver market has been Fernando Alonso, and it seems an announcement will be made shortly that he will be going to Ferrari to join Massa. Assuming Felipe has lost none of his old skill, Raikkonen will join Hamilton at McLaren, Rosberg will go to Brawn to join Button, possibly for a swop with Barrichello, Kubica will join Renault, the Red Bull Racing drivers stay where they are as do most of the others, with it being open as to who joins the new teams – do they want to make the most of the experience out there (for example Jarno Trulli could move to Lotus to help them develop their car – as he worked with Mike Gascoyne when he was at Renault) or do they want to bring on some new talent – a bit of both probably. The interesting question is whether Nelsinho Piquet Junior will get a drive for 2010, the negative associations of crashgate make it unlikely he will go to a team who requires significant sponsorship, but it will also depend on how much financially he could bring to the party. I looked very carefully at the press release concerning Qadbak who have bought the BMW Sauber operation, it mentions middle eastern and European families – but not, as far as I could see, Brazilian. The great news is that next year we’re likely to see a battle between Hamilton in a McLaren and Alonso in a Ferrari. They had a superb fight at the British Grand Prix going wheel to wheel along the Pits Straight and there they were fighting for 16th and 17th – imagine what it will be like when the world championship is at stake.
September 15, 2009
Today’s announcement from the FIA confirms that there will be a Lotus Cosworth on the grid for 2010, but contrary to my suggestion that it would be based around BMW Sauber, the team will be a new start-up based at the Racing Technologies Norfolk facility and with Mike Gascoyne as the Technical Director. This is a huge blow to the BMW Sauber operation. The FIA stated that they were impressed with the BMW proposal, but uncertainty over ownership meant that they would not get the 13th place. The FIA has, however given them a potential 14th place on the grid ie they are first in the queue if Toyota or Renault pull out and also if they get the teams to agree to a 14 team grid. Given Ferrari Chairman Luca de Montezemolo’s comments on wanting to have three cars per team (presumably in order to keep their many contracted drivers occupied!) it seems unlikely that FOTA would support this.
September 14, 2009
Putting the Renault situation to one side, Max Mosley made some interesting comments related to the final place on the 2010 grid during the Monza race weekend. The withdrawal of BMW and the failure to find a quick buyer for the BMW/Sauber team before the Concorde Agreement was signed meaning that an additional place has become available.
Mosley is quoted in Autosport at the weekend as saying that they now have final offers from the ‘three most serious teams’ and that following due diligence they will select one with an announcement being made early this week. He also confirmed that BMW Sauber were one of the three. There is speculation that the other two are Spanish based Epsilon and Norfolk based Team Lotus.
The odds on favourite has to be BMW Sauber as they are already up and running with some very impressive facilities at Hinwil in Switzerland, and of course they have all the infrastructure and capability to run an F1 team. There is a link between the rumours around Lotus and BMW Sauber – Petronas. Petronas are an oil and gas corporate who are wholly owned by the Malaysian government and currently sponsor the BMW Sauber team. Group Lotus are owned by Proton who produced Malaysia’s first car and obviously have strong links both with Petronas and the Malaysian government. It is not inconceivable that if a rescue package for BMW Sauber is found it would involve capital from Petronas and perhaps also Proton and could therefore end up as Lotus Sauber or perhaps just Lotus.
If this is the case the interesting question is which engines will they run? With Mercedes likely to have their hands full – it could be that Ferrari or Renault get involved, or of course it could be Cosworth. In his interview Mosley took the opportunity to say that he felt that the Cosworth engine may cause a few surprises in 2010, and of course if Cosworth have four customers rather than three it makes their programme even more sustainable. But to those of us who can remember the originals, the idea of a Lotus Cosworth racing again in F1 does conjure up some very evocative memories.
September 7, 2009
The Daily Telegraph is carrying a story that Mercedes-Benz are set to become a shareholder in the Brawn GP Team. If this does come to fruition it is great news for Brawn and also excellent news for F1. Mercedes came back into F1 as an engine supplier well before BMW, Honda and Toyota and this suggests that they see F1 as a far longer term investment than some of their competitors. The advantage of this strategy is that Mercedes reduces its dependence on McLaren which has been involved in a number of scandals and were suffering from poor performance at the start of the year. If this does go ahead it is likely that Mercedes would separate their marketing activities from McLaren and develop a more independent F1 operation.
This leaves a number of teams currently vying to use Mercedes engines. If the deal with Brawn is correct then it looks likely that Mercedes will be supplying McLaren, Brawn and Force India in 2010, with the additional possibility of Red Bull Racing and Williams (although the likelihood is that these will both be supplied by Renault). Current regulations allow a manufacturer to supply engines to up to two other teams, but can supply more if the FIA grants permission.
Brawn’s Nick Fry was also recently quoted in Autosport as saying that they had a number of three year contracts from sponsors which they would announce with their new 2010 car. One possibility appears to be Emirates Airlines. He also stated that there was no deal with Virgin beyond 2009.
This leaves us with a revised list of primary sponsors and engine suppliers for 2010 as follows:
|Red Bull Racing||Red Bull||Renault?|
|Toro Rosso||Red Bull||Ferrari|